Same product, same unit economics, same single $4M seed in all four — no Series A or B except where noted. Ideal is the headline case; the others stress the same model on collections lift, encounter volume, churn, the captive ramp, exit multiple, and (in Realistic) a Series A. Cash stays positive in every case. The captive channel is partner-fed (Empower) in all four — it is the #1 dependency, not a hedge.
| Metric | Ideal the headline | Base | Conservative | Realistic Series-A sensitivity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed raise | $4.0M | $4.0M | $4.0M | $4.0M |
| Exit ARR (run-rate) | $50.9M | $43.5M | $33.7M | $43.5M |
| Gross MOIC | 25.4x | 17.4x | 10.1x | 7.0x |
| IRR | 72% | 61% | 47% | 38% |
| EBITDA margin @ exit | 65% | 60% | 56% | 51% |
| Providers @ exit | 866 | 866 | 719 | 866 |
| Practices @ exit | 346 | 346 | 287 | 346 |
| Encounters / day | 28 | 26 | 24 | 26 |
| Exit multiple | 10x | 8x | 6x | 8x |
| Min cash (must be >=0) | +$0.91M | +$0.91M | +$1.03M | +$1.23M |
Ideal — the headline. Full AI-collections lift, 28 encounters/day, and a 10x exit compound to $50.9M ARR at 866 providers / 346 practices — a 25.4x gross MOIC and 72% IRR, with cash never below +$0.91M. This is the case we lead with.
Base — defensible, no AI lift. Strip out the AI-collections lift and ease to 26 encounters/day at an 8x exit. Still $43.5M ARR at 866 providers, 17.4x / 61% IRR. The headline does not need the AI lift to clear a strong venture return.
Conservative — the downside. 24 encounters/day, 8% churn, a slower captive explosion, and a 6x exit pull scale back to 719 providers and $33.7M ARR — still 10.1x / 47% IRR, with the highest cash trough (+$1.03M). The plan stays well above the round even when several assumptions soften at once.
Realistic — Series-A sensitivity. Same $43.5M ARR as Base, but it layers in a Series A (diluting the seed to ~8%) plus ~$5k/provider of explicit CAC and an 8x exit. Dilution compresses the seed's MOIC to 7.0x / 38% IRR — the answer to "what if it costs more and takes another round." Still a clean return.
All four share the canonical REV model recurrence and the same $4M seed; cash stays positive throughout. The captive channel is partner-fed by Empower in every scenario and is the model's single largest dependency — the lean ~15% external sales motion and the Realistic Series-A case are the diversification against it, not a claim that the plan is independent of captive. What differs across the four is the collections lift, encounter volume, churn, captive ramp speed, exit multiple, and whether a Series A is raised.